Create Your DRF Account
New to DRF?
Everything you could possibly
need in one place
Register
Don't have an account? Register Here
DRF Logo
04/07/2010 12:59PM

Whatpricekendereya?

By Steven Crist
  • Print
Tweet
Email

There's a lot of loose talk about how Eskendereya's going to be a "heavy," or "prohibitive" or "odds-on" favorite in the 136th Kentucky Derby May 1. Even putting aside that there's still an Arkansas Derby and a Blue Grass to be run, and 3 1/2 weeks of unforeseeable twists and turns ahead, I think people may be overestimating how strongly he'll be bet. The following chart, listing the last 25 Derby favorites in order of their odds, may provide some context:

Some nuggets:

--Only two of the last 25 Derby favorites have been less than even money, none since Arazi in 1992.

--Only five of the last 25 Derby favorites have gone off at less than 2-1.

 --Since the parimutuel lineup was increased from 14 to 20 separate betting interests, no one has been shorter than Big Brown's 2.40-1 in 2008.

--All eight Derby favorites in this span who were 2.20-1 or less lost. The last Derby favorite to win at less than 2-1 was Spectacular Bid at 3-5 in 1979.

I happen to like Eskendereya, and think his Fountain of Youth and Wood are the two best performances we've seen from a 3-year-old this year. Everything else being equal, though, the more I stare at the chart above, I just can't see him being much less than 2-1 on Derby Day. And of course it's a long 24 days to go: It was about a year ago today that we were all wondering whether I Want Revenge or Quality Road was going to be the Derby favorite and neither made it to the gate.

  • Print



Most Popular

  • Stories
  • DRF Products
  1. 1.
    Wondrwherecraigis takes them gate to wire in Fire Plug
    Posted 01/29/2022 04:45PM
  1. 1.
    10-Card Formulator PP Plan
  2. 2.
    10-Card Classic PP Plan
  3. 3.
    DRF Plus One-Month Subscription
  4. 4.
    DRF Digital Newspaper
  5. 5.
    DRF Clocker Reports
Syndicate content Subscribe to this blog

DRFLogoFooter
DRF.com News Search
  • Horse Racing Events
    • Saratoga Meet
    • Kentucky Derby
    • Fountain of Youth Stakes
    • Preakness Stakes
    • Belmont Stakes
    • Triple Crown
    • More
  • Horse Racing News
    • Race of the Day
    • Track News
    • Top Headlines
    • Race Previews
    • Race Recaps
    • More
  • Tracks
    • Churchill Downs
    • Gulfstream Park
    • Belmont Park
    • Aqueduct
    • Saratoga
    • More
  • Handicapping & PPs
    • DRF Classic PPs
    • Formulator PPs
    • TimeForm US PPs
    • Daily Racing Program
    • DRF Picks
    • More
Get our free Newsletter, DRF Morning Line

Free Race-of-the-Day video analysis & PPs,DRF Bets Gameplan Play-of-the-Day, all the latest racing news and more.

Sign Up for Newsletter
  • Bet Now
  • Purchase PPs
  • DRF Sports
  • About
  • Betting 101
  • Handicapping 101
  • Help Center
  • Advertising
  • Contact
  • Policies
  • Sitemap
© Daily Racing Form. All rights reserved
Download DRF Bets on your smartphone
Don't miss the break! Follow DRF
© Daily Racing Form. All rights reserved