2:54 pm: Not the greatest of starts, as I began the triple-carryover at Belmont with a B when Phi Beta Mom revealed previously unseen rating ability, avoided a duel, and won laughing coming from the garden spot behind a fast pace in leg 1. So all my C tickets are dead and I can go to the B well just once more:
That's $1720 for 22 tickets, 16 of them dead after one leg. The live ones:
5,6/6/1/4,6/1,10
1,3/6/1/4,6/1,10
5,6/1,7/1/4,6/1,10
5,6/6/6,11/4,6/1,10
5,6/6/1/3,7,8/1,10
5,6/6/1/4,6/2,5,8
My goofiest horse of the day runs in leg 3, the 6th. A quick look at the pp's -- or pp -- of Sinister Pass does not have much to recommend it: A single start on the turf at Monmouth, where he was beaten 23 lengths at odds of 136-1. But his trainer's name rang a bell and I looked him up on Formulator and realized why: Sinister Pass is a full brother to Sinister Deance, who was a big putover winner second time under somewhat similar circumstances. Look at her first two career starts:
So here's the fanciful theory: They run Sinister Pass in an impossible spot at Monmouth, going long in open company, where he gets a nice six-furlong grass workout, then comes over here (with the same Monmouth jockey) to score out dropping in class and distance in a New York-bred maiden race.
Of course Sinister Pass may simply have no ability. Even if he does, and it's all systems go today, they drew into a race featuring the return of Leap Day, who looked like a well-above-average statebred in his four starts last year. If he's ready to pick up where he left off, he'll cruise at odds-on. I singled Leap Day on a lot of tickets but used 3-1 No Lien Here and 30-1 Sinister Pass in equal strength as B's. And I can always make a little win bet on Sinister Pass if y'all don't knock down the price too much in the next 45 minutes.
3:15 pm: Ick. Another B as Gold Trippi looped the field from last to win at $8.00. So I'm down to being alive by a single, pathetic, chalky thread: 6/1/4,6/1,10.
Sinister Pass is the longest race 5-6 double will-pay at $391 from Gold Trippi ($8.00) but a mere 14-1 at the moment.
So why didn't I either single Bribon and his gaudy 118 Beyer or make my second choice Gold Trippi instead of Silver Stetston Man? I was concerned about Bribon's 100-day layoff and about a potential lack of pace. Right on count 1, dead wrong on count 2, as all the jocks except Catellano apparently shared my concern. The hopeless Japengo gunned, Vicarino gunned after him, and Silverstetsonman and Bribon made it four-across by the turn. Gold Trippi flew by them all, and $8 must have seemed a gift to those who were skeptical of the favorite.
All those tickets to be 1x1x2x2. Bah humbug.
3:45 pm: Sinister Pass is no Sinister Deance. Trailed at every call at 39-1 while Leap Day could only manage second to Multidude. Not my day. But tomorrow's card looks like a good one....
5:00 pm: The will-pays:
1: $5,896
2: $5,760
3: $11,857
4: $17,708
5: $23,273
6: $83,995
7: $156,632
8: $14,470
9: scratch
10: $3,927
Somehow I don't think my conso with the 1 or 10 is quite going to get me out for the day.
