Randy Moss

What was the last true live TV interview granted by George Steinbrenner? Very possibly, it could have been about his racehorses and not his beloved New York Yankees. Five years ago, Steinbrenner's homebred Bellamy Road was the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Naturally, everyone wanted to interview The Boss. But ESPN requests for print or TV interviews were referred to his Kinsman Farm in Ocala, where his people confirmed Steinbrenner would indeed attend the Derby but would conduct absolutely no interviews of any kind.

   For the last month, I've been working on an upgrade to the Moss Pace Figures.  It is more of a statistical fine tuning than an overhaul.  But in trying to reconcile database numbers with common-sense handicapping, I again came up against a dilemma that might be of interest to pacefig junkies, whether you prefer my pace numbers or anyone else's.   My usual warning prior to these kinds of blog entries:  this is not light reading for the casual horseplayer.  This is definitely "inside baseball" stuff, as they say.    First, some background.  One of my goals in the creation of Moss Pace Figures was to give horseplayers "true" numbers that maintain integrity over all distances.  Most pace figure methods use time charts based on pars for each class and distance,

     Handicapping the Belmont Stakes - to me, at least - involves answering two questions.  How much was Ice Box's performance in the Kentucky Derby flattered by the pace?  And is First Dude likely to get the same trip in the Belmont as he got in the Preakness?     If those are indeed the keys to deciphering the race, pace figures can provide assistance.     First, the Derby pace was borderline suicidal, so Ice Box's running style had to be boosted by the race shape. Given that pace, there was no doubt he was the best horse, and with a clean trip he might have won by daylight in a Beyer Speed Figure of 106 or 107.  The Florida Derby pace probably worked somewhat to his advantage as well.      But the Belmont Stakes pace is likely to be more competitive than many

    First off, the No. 1 post position in the Kentucky Derby is not a death sentence, no matter what you read. If you have the time, consult YouTube to watch the video of Derby runnings from 2003-2009, and you won't see meaningful early trouble for any of those rail-drawn horses. As a matter of fact, in each of those years, the horses breaking from the inside post outran their projected finishes based on final odds (average odds ranking 15th, average finish 9.5). There is much to be said for saving ground - ask Calvin Borel. But having said that, Lookin at Lucky seems the kind of horse that would least benefit from the No. 1 post in the Derby. After his travails in the Rebel, Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby, he looks to me like a horse who is easily intimidated.

(Note: Daily Racing Form was informed by NYRA on Thursday, May 13, that the official running times for the Withers Stakes have been changed to :23.42, :45.64, 1:09.27 and a final time of 1:35.87.)