A few thoughts on today's Premier Pick Four, linking the Commonwealth and Blue Grass at Keeneland with the Instant Racing and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn:
Leg 1 (Commonwealth): I'm really interested in Medzendeekron, who's 10-1 on the morning line, and who many will dismiss off a gappy 11-race career that was undistinguished until his last start, where he ran a Beyer 100 winning a 6 1/2-furlong allowance race at Santa Anita. It's usually wise to be wary of a figure so out of line with a horse's history, but I've gone through the March 1 SA results and Medzendeekron's effort looks completely legit. As it was his second start off a long layoff, I'm willing to gamble that he finally got his act together. He finished explosively and a similar effort might blow away this odd collection of turfers, turnbacks and returnees from layoffs. I'll back up with Rebellion, Forefathers and Thousand Words and let Xchanger beat me from the rail off the layoff.
Leg 2 (Blue Grass): Pyro may well be the best horse in the race but he's an underlay at even-money and this is a ripe spot for chaos. Remember last year's inaugural Polytrack Blue Grass, where Dominican, Street Snse, Zanjero and Teufelsberg finished about eight inches apart? In addition, Pyro hasn't raced on a synthetric track, and probably isn't wound too tightly for this spot. My plan is to go six or seven deep.
Leg 3 (Instant Racing): You've got to narrow somewhere, and I'll live a little dangerously here with just the two favorites. Sky Mom has won three stakes races, which is three more than the rest of the field combined, and just looks better than these. Euphony has won both her starts, should stretch out to a mile, and has more upside than the other contenders, who required multiple starts to get through their preliminary conditions.
Leg 4 (Arkansas Derby): A tough race, but if I can get alive to the quartet of Gayego, Z Fortune, Golden Yank and Liberty Bull, I'll take my chances.
