Create Your DRF Account
New to DRF?
Everything you could possibly
need in one place
Register
Don't have an account? Register Here
DRF Logo
11/10/2007 1:34PM

Peculiar Payoff

By Steven Crist
  • Print
Tweet
Email

I'm still scratching my head over Friday's results at Aqueduct, where nobody picked six, leading to a $118k double-carry into todays card. The surprise wasn't that there was a carryover in a sequence that included $27.60 and $25.60 winners, but that 6 of the 9 winning consolation tickets appear to have included both of those longshots but missed the 6-1 winner of the finale.

Here's what happened. When pick-six probables were posted for the last race, there were two tickets alive to the two favorites for a potential $59k and one each to the third and fourth choices for $118k each. When all four live horses lost, to fifth choice Sax in the city ($15.40), there was a carryover, and I expected to see about 30 winning consos at around $1,000. It stands to reason that if there were six "misses" in a race won by a 6-1 shot, there would have been even more tickets that used the last winner but missed one of the two earlier big prices. But then a conso payoff of $3,314 was posted, meaning that there were only nine combinations sold with five of six -- and obviously six of those nine were the six tickets that were alive into the last race.

I have no reason to believe that the Drexel boys are back in business, but this makes absolutely no sense to me. Anyone have a theory?

--Today's carryover sequence includes the Red Smith Handicap, the toughest race of the day and one of only two graded stakes races on the national calendar:

3:44 pm EST: Aqueduct race 8, G2 $150k Red Smith H., 3+, 1 3/8-T(yielding)

The Red Smith drew a shifty field of 12 with only one prior G2 winner -- Dreadnaught, whose G2 victories came in 2004 and who has lost his last 18 in a row. Given the weak credentials of the field, the 11-furlong distance and the yielding turf, I'm leaning toward the European imports in the field. They're a spotty group themselves but may simply have been facing better overseas. So if I get that far, I'll try to be be alive to the German-breds Encitas and Musketier, as well as Sunshine Kid, a repatriated Kentucky-bred making his american debut after nine tries in England and France. I'll also use the improving Godolphin runner True Cause, who had a horrific trip against several of these last time out.

4:37 pm EST: Churchill race 9, G2 $150k Mrs. Revere S. 3F, 1 1/16m-T
Bit of Whimsy is a bit of a standout, exiting a pair of excellent G1 efforts -- 2nd to Alexander Tango in the Graden City and first in the QE II at Keeneland -- and meeting an arguably weaker group here. She looks very solid and could well be less than her 2-1 ML odds. I'm not sold on ML second-choice Bel air Beauty off her 2 1/2-length victory over Bachata in the Valley View last time out. I want to see her do it again before believing the apparent vast improvement she registered, and Bachata came out of that race to be a dull fifth against a much weaker group in an ungraded stakes at Aqueduct Friday. You could do worse than taking a flyer with Cat Charmer (8-1), who has improved steadily from race to race and has a strong late kick.

  • Print



Most Popular

  • Stories
  • DRF Products
  1. 1.
    Wondrwherecraigis takes them gate to wire in Fire Plug
    Posted 01/29/2022 04:45PM
  1. 1.
    10-Card Formulator PP Plan
  2. 2.
    10-Card Classic PP Plan
  3. 3.
    DRF Plus One-Month Subscription
  4. 4.
    DRF Digital Newspaper
  5. 5.
    DRF Clocker Reports
Syndicate content Subscribe to this blog

DRFLogoFooter
DRF.com News Search
  • Horse Racing Events
    • Saratoga Meet
    • Kentucky Derby
    • Fountain of Youth Stakes
    • Preakness Stakes
    • Belmont Stakes
    • Triple Crown
    • More
  • Horse Racing News
    • Race of the Day
    • Track News
    • Top Headlines
    • Race Previews
    • Race Recaps
    • More
  • Tracks
    • Churchill Downs
    • Gulfstream Park
    • Belmont Park
    • Aqueduct
    • Saratoga
    • More
  • Handicapping & PPs
    • DRF Classic PPs
    • Formulator PPs
    • TimeForm US PPs
    • Daily Racing Program
    • DRF Picks
    • More
Get our free Newsletter, DRF Morning Line

Free Race-of-the-Day video analysis & PPs,DRF Bets Gameplan Play-of-the-Day, all the latest racing news and more.

Sign Up for Newsletter
  • Bet Now
  • Purchase PPs
  • DRF Sports
  • About
  • Betting 101
  • Handicapping 101
  • Help Center
  • Advertising
  • Contact
  • Policies
  • Sitemap
© Daily Racing Form. All rights reserved
Download DRF Bets on your smartphone
Don't miss the break! Follow DRF
© Daily Racing Form. All rights reserved