So who was the one lucky weasel who hit the pick-6 at Aqueduct today for $56k and deprived us all of a carryover into Wednesday? He's come forward to identify himself, and here's his account of how it happened:
"I usually don't even play the pick-6 without a carryover, but I've been on a roll lately and today's Aqueduct card seemed tailor-made for how I like to play. It was New York Stallion Stakes Day and the sequence included five stakes races, all with a heavy favorite, three of whom I thought were legit and two who I wanted to play against. So I played an A-B-C array where I singled Tall Poppi (4th), Underserviced (6th) and Classic Pack(7th), pretty much requiring that two of the three of them had to win, while using three A's in the two other stakes, where I wasn't sold on Bella Atrice or Spanky Fischbein as short-priced favorites. Here's how my 10-ticket, $1,026 play broke down:
"Once Tall Poppi lost at 3-5 to 10-1 Looking at Her in the first leg, I had to go 5 A's or 4 A's and one B the rest of the way. Once Underserviced and Classic Pack both won, I was alive 3x5 into the last two legs. When Mor Chances won the 8th, I was pleasantly shocked to see that mine were the only live tickets into the finale. The payoff was $56,246 with any of my five horses and a carryover with the other four. I didn't have Storm Harbor, who led until upper stretch, but my quintet included all three who ran by him.
"The parlay was 'only' $20,540 and the payoff was nearly three times as good, even with a winning (by a desperate nose) 1-2 shot. Nothing was longer than a fourth betting choice but Underserviced was the only winning favorite. I guess the keys were beating Bella Atrice at 8-5 and Spanky Fischbein at 6-5, and thinking Classic Pack, not 3-2 Logic Way, was the stickout in the 7th. Also, since there was no carryover, I probably was one of the few people putting $1k or more into an $89,488 pool."
If the narrative voice above sounds familiar...okay, busted, the weasel was yours truly.
After failing to connect on a five-digit pick-six all year, I've now had three in the last 15 days. I believe this is largely random, a reflection of the roller-coaster ride of chasing high-risk/high-reward wagers. Maybe having a temporarily fat account balance led me to play a little bigger and looser today than I normally would on a non-carry card, and if I'd whittled the play down to $600 I easily could have whittled my way out of it.
But I also can't help noting that the three I've hit have had one thing in common: No dreaded turf sprints.
I know it's more fun to read about near-misses and bad beats but don't worry, I'm sure we'll be back to that in no time.
---Sorry about no Aqueduct carryover into Wednesday, but there's an unusual carry we can chase tomorrow at The Meadowlands. Somehow, no one hit the pick-4 Saturday night, when the 6th-through-9th race winners paid $21.60, $9.40, $7.80 and $26.20, so there's a $21,741 pick-four carryover into Monday's afternoon card. The sequence, which starts at 2:45 pm ET, is entirely on dirt, with two six-furlong sprints and two mile-and-70 routes. With a takeout of only 15 percent and a Monday afternoon pool likely to draw well under $100k, the $21k carryover makes it a rare positive-expectation pick-4 pool.
