11:50 am: It's an all-filly and almost-all-turf $209k double-carryover at Saratoga today,with race 5-10 all for fillies and mares, the last five of them on the grass. In all, today's 10-race card includes eight races for fillies and mares and seven on the grass, including the opening-race steeplechase.
It's fast, firm and 75 degrees at the Spa today. There are three $70k stakes on the card -- the Paul Fout steeplechase, the P. G. Johnson for 2-year-old turf filies and the Riskaverse for 3-year-old turf fillies -- and an unusually high-priced maiden-claimer: The seven 2-year-old fillies in race 2, three of them first-timers, are in for a $150,000 claiming tag. Six of the seven were sold at public auction, at prices ranging from $7,500 to $130,000. If you can get a short price that there will be no claims, take it.
1:45 pm: No 4150k claims in the 2nd, a romp for second-timer Speckledbird at $4.30. The point of the race was, I think, to accomplish precisely what commenter Walt P. discusses below: A sort of B-level maiden-special race that's not going to attract high-priced purchases. That's illustrated on today's card: The 4150k maiden-claimer carried a purse of $44,000 and drew six horses who sold for $130k or less. The fifth race, a straight MSW for 2-year-old fillies, is worth $55,000 and has entrants who sold for $1 million, $600k, $360k, $350k and $225k.
3:30 pm: Out after one leg. I would have had to hit the all button to use 21-1 Dattt Echo. I have no idea why Capitalism at Risk was the favorite in all the multirace willpays over Stormandaprayer, who I leaned on heavily and thought I was in good shape with turning for home, but Dattt's Echo prevailed in seeming contradiction to her previous form. Oh well.
Triple carryover? I'll take even-money. It's not like this was an easy sequence. Here, for the record, was the already-dead play:
(Total: $1,256. $1,024 for the all-A's-and-B's ticket and 5 backups costing $96, $32, $32, $48 and $24.)
4:30 pm: Would you take even-money on a triple-carryover now? After Crossfirehurricane just took the 7th at 42-1, I like our chances. The pick-3 of the first three legs paid $14,569 for $2.
I'm happy for all of you who thought 21-1 Dattt's Echo was so haveable. Why did I toss her? She'd stopped badly in both of her starts, finished behind Happy Week last time out, had a negative rider switch, and figured to be part of a very hot pace involving others who had both run faster earlier and survived duels better. Sorry, but I wouldn't have liked her at 42-1.
If there's a carryover, it will be more than $650k, according to NYRA. And you get an extra 90 minutes to study, since first post Friday is 2:30 p.m.
5:40 pm: It's official: Triple carryover of $656,442
By the way, that was a very nice turf debut by Silver Edition winning the Riskaverse at 14-1, but I don't think she really ran the fractions posted of 23.59, 47.20, 1:12.38 and 1:34.17. That would mean she ran her fourth quarter in 21.79. I find the splits in these one-mile races on the Saratoga inner turf often strain credulity.
Get to work. I haven't even looked at Friday yet, but two good handicappers I know both said it's "impossible." We shall see.
