12:25 pm: Fast, firm, sunny mild for Day 27 -- probably a cruel calm before the storms that are supposed to start rolling in later this afternoon. There's rain in the forecast for each of the 24 hours beginning around 4 p.m. today. There's a $37k pick-6 carryover into Bernard Baruch Day, with that G2 turf stakes scheduled to go as the 9th of 10 at 5:30 pm. Don't cut it too close betting the later races -- if the rains come sooner than later, they may accelerate the last few to get the track sealed overnight.
The sequence appears manageable today (famous last words), with Es Mia looking like everyone's single in the first leg and several other races featuring two or three clear standouts. I'll be getting involved, and if I don't get a play posted before the 5th, assume that I'm virtually singled to Es Mia with a couple of tiny C backups.
2:50 pm: I had such a clever little idea in the 4th race and it almost worked.
The last time these older statebred stakes routers met, R Clear Victory got away early from favored fellow speedball Future Prospect, and they ran 1-2 around the track giving the closers no chance. Today, according to my notion, Future Prospect would be sent after RCF early, a kamikaze duel would develop, and the deepest of the deep closers -- like 8-1 Dr. DFC and 20-1 Naughty New Yorker -- would come storming by them.
It unfolded to perfection. The two favorites went at it tooth and nail through wild fractions, opening a huge lead on the rest of the field, then began to wilt and here came the closers. It was a thing of beauty. Naughty New Yorker and Dr. D.F.C. were rolling up on the outside for a bazillion-dollar exacta I had a bazillion times.
One problem. Future Prospect didn't stop. He had every right to finish last or next-to-last, but he just kept going against all logic and reason and hung in there, holding off Naughty New Yorker by a neck with Dr. D.F.C. a nose back in third. It was an annoying reversal of fortune, but how mad can you be when a horse hangs in so gamely against you?
And at least my old friend Naughty New Yorker, who had run three bad ones to begin his 7-year-old campaign, finally inched over the $1 million mark in career earnings in his 49th career start:
On to the pick-6. Leaning heavily on 3-5 Es Mia in the opening leg.
3:20 pm: Oh well. Alive for five. No, 15-1 Triple Tax Exempt was not one of my two C's. Es Mia got a horrific ride but maybe wasn't firing anyway today, and I didn't get a whiff of any of the first three finishers. So much for this being a manageable card. Right now I'll say it's even-money we'll have a double-carryover into Travers Day.
3:50 pm: I'll root for commenter Seeking the Gold the rest of the way since my live ticket would have looked exactly the same as his in the last three legs if I'd used Triple Tax Exempt as a C: 2,5/1/7,9. First he's got to get through a single in Pearl of Valor, one of my three A's in the upcoming 7th, who opned a ridiculous 12-1.
I'll spread out a little more in the late pick-4, like so:
Today's pick-6 handle was $233,309. Take out the 26 percent vig, set aside a quarter of the remainder for consolations, and add yesterday's $37k carry, and a Travers Day double-carryover would start with around $165k in the kitty. With victories by Grasberg at 7-2 and Loxy Lady at 2-1, though, we probably need one more goofy winner to get it to carry again.
5:45 pm: Justenufhumor's victory in the baruch at 4-5 means there's just one uncovered horse -- the impossible-looking #1, Tokonama -- for a $167k carryover. Otherwise, it pays from $27k (No Detour, 6 winners) to $167k (Adventurous Plan, one winner.)
6:50 pm: No Detour took the finale, and the rain hasn't started yet. Track officials are hopeful that the worst will come down tonight while the track is sealed and that the system might move out by post time.
Speaking of which: Which greyhound below has the right idea about tomorrow morning?
It's Popeye, awake and alert, for "Talking Horses" at a special 10 a.m. start and first post at 11:30.
