Today's Spinster at Keeneland and Clement Hirsch (the grass one) and Ancient Title at Oak Tree just about wrap up the U.S. Grade 1 schedule before the Breeders' Cup. The only other Grade 1's before BC Friday are the Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland next Saturday, for 3-year-old turf fillies, and the following Saturday's DeFrancis Dash at Laurel. Those races could yield a starter or two for the F&M Turf or the Sprint, but the major preps for the BC races are just about done.
The questions of whether Zenyatta will run in the Ladies' Classic or the Classic, and whether Sea the Stars will come at all, are the two great uncertainties of the next four weeks and it's difficult to assess either of the Classics in the absence of those key decisions. Nonetheless, one leading practitioner in the uncertainty business, the British bookmaker William Hill, issued updated odds this morning for 9 of the 14 BC races:
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From William Hill:
BREEDERS’ CUP 2009
BC Marathon: 4-1 Mastery, Septimus, 7-1 Nite Light, 8-1 Midships, 9-1 Father Time, Geordieland, Mourilyan, 10-1 Muhannak, 12-1 Church Service, 16-1 Stream Cat, 20-1 Big Booster, Dansant, Eldaafer, Palladio 25-1 Alcomo
BC Sprint: 1-1 Zensational, 7-1 Fatal Bullet, 7-1 Kodiak Kowboy, 10-1 Capt Candyman Can, Fleeting Spirit, Pyro, 12-1 Gayego, 16-1 Benny The Bull, El Brujo,25-1 Atta Boy Roy, Global Hunter, 33-1 Not For Silver
BC Filly & Mare Turf: 5-2 Dar Re Mi, 9-2 Shalanaya, 5-1 Forever Together, Magical Fantasy, 6-1 Midday, 10-1 Visit, 11-1 Gozzip Girl, 12-1 Dynaforce, Moneycantbuymelove, Rutherienne, 14-1 Salve Germania, 16-1 Gotta Have Her, Internallyflawless, Heaven Sent, Miss World, Pure Clan, 20-1 Well Monied, 25-1 Acoma, 33-1 Criticism
Breeders’ Cup Turf: 1-1 Conduit, 8-1 Spanish Moon, 12-1 Just As Well, 14-1 Ask, Midships, Take The Points, Telling, 20-1 Batle of Hastings, Black Bear Island, Marsh Side, Presious Passion, 25-1 Marchfield, 33-1 Artiste Royal, Musketier, Spring House
BC Mile: 4-5 Goldikova, 5-1 Delegator, Zacinto, 10-1 Colonel John, 14-1 Cowboy Cal, 16-1 Battle Of Hastings, Court Vision, 20-1 Global Runner, 25-1 Artiste Royal, Courageous Cat, Justenuffhumor, Mr Sidney, 33-1 Awesome Gem, Banrock, Evasive, Meteore, Monterey Jazz, Whatsthescript
BC Classic: 4-5 Sea The Stars, 9-4 Rip Van Winkle, 5-1 Zenyatta, 7-1 Summer Bird,10-1 Mastercraftsman, 14-1 Gio Ponti, Gitano Hernando, Quality Road, Richards Kid,16-1 Rail Trip, 20-1 Bullsbay, Einstein, Mine That Bird, Tiago, 25-1 Macho Again, 33-1 Colonel John
BC Sprint: 1-1 Zensational, 5-1 Fatal Bullet, 7-1 Kodiak Kowboy, Capt Candyman Can, 10-1 Fleeting Spirit, Pyro, 12-1 Gayego, 16-1 Benny The Bull, El Brujo, 25-1 Atta Boy Roy, Global Hunter, 33-1 Not For Silver
BC Turf Sprint: 4-1 California Flag, 5-1 Fleeting Spirit, 6-1 Cannonball, Chamberlain Bridge, 7-1 Heros Reward, 8-1 Silver Timber, 10-1 Delta Storm, Desert Code, Smart Enough, Yankee Injunuity, 11-1 Mr Nightlinger, 12-1 Canadian Ballet, Diamondrella, 20-1 Cardashi, Natural Seven, Noble Court, 33-1 Atticus Kristy, Little Nick
BC Dirt Mile: 7-1 Captain Candyman Can, 10-1 Cowboy Cal, Crown of Thorns, Georgie Boy, Matto Mondo, Midshipman, Vineyard Haven, 12-1 Gayego, Gone Astray, Pyro, 14-1 Informed, 16-1 Mast Track, Monterey Jazz, My Pal Charlie, 25-1 Assessment, Big Drama, Charitable Man, Chirac, El Gato Malo, It’s A Bird, Jonesboro, Kensei, Mr Fantasy, Rebellion, Slew’s Tizzy,Smooth Air,33-1 Coal Play
No lines were provided for the four juvenile races or for the Ladies' Classic, the latter presumably because of Zenyatta's unknown status.
---Only three of Saturday's nine Grade 1 races earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures: The Goodwood (106), Shadwell Turf Mile (102) and First Lady(102). At Belmont, Take the Points got a 95 for the Jamaica while Homeboykris's Champagne and Devil May Care's Frizette both got 89's. Noble's Promise earned a 91 in the Breeders' Futurity, slightly the best of the final round of G1 Juvenile preps. Magical Fantasy's Yellow Ribbon got a 98.
Before Zenyatta's fans start howling about her preliminary BSF of 97, allow me to repeat the following guidelines: A speed figure represents how fast a horse ran from point A to point B relative to the speed of the racing surface on a particular day, is not an overall performance rating, and does not measure how hard a horse was ridden or what kind of a trip it had. But there is simply no arguing that a mile and a sixteenth in 1:42.89 (Lady's Secret) is a significantly slower performance than a mile and an eighth in 1:48.39 (Goodwood).
Zenyatta ran her final sixteenth in 6.23 seconds. Say that she could have sustained that for another sixteenth, tack another 6.23 on to her final time, and you get a projected 9f final time of 1:49.12, which is 0.73 seconds (roughly four lengths) slower than the Goodwood and -- perhaps surprisingly -- right about what Mine That Bird ran while beaten 3 3/4 lengths in the Goodwood.
--Double carryover at Belmont tomorrow -- yes, Monday, when the track is open because it's Columbus Day. Four horses in the finale at Belmont were 5-1 or less but only three of them were covered in the Pick-6 and the fourth, 9-2 Song for Pupcake, was the winner (with the other three of the board.) So there's $140,527 in the kitty for the holiday Pick-6, which starts with the 5th race at 3:07 pm ET and includes the featured $100k Pebbles for 3-year-old turf fillies.
